What's š„ in Enterprise IT/VC #313
Stormy š§ļø ahead but keep the faith - the halo effect from public cloud spend is real
As I prepare for our first in-person AGM or annual investor meeting in Miami š“ this week, I keep asking myself how will I find the right balance between the shitty reality of today and optimism for the future. Clearly it was a rough week for tech and our story would have been much easier if the Big 3 cloud vendors showed accelerating growth. However, the stock market is a real time voting machine which trades on future expectations of earnings and this week the big 3 cloud vendors whiffed on expectations. Here are the summarized numbers from Jamin Ball.

And headlines like this from Barronās abound āShades of the Dot-Com Bust: The Dow Walloped the Nasdaq This Weekā - not a great setting to point to the future when folks compare this to the dot-com bubble and bust.
So why am I still bullish? While I canāt predict EV/NTM multiples for the Top 5 in the future (itās still at over 15x down from 80x), we have to remember that the underlying fundamentals about where revenue will come from, cloud spend, are still ginormous and not falling off of a cliff. Hereās a great slide from Hashicorpās investor day a few weeks ago that beautifully encapsulates this. Notice the bottom right corner - IDC estimates 750 million new cloud native apps will be built by 2025 representing 4x growth š². The shift to cloud drags everything else with it, and while growth is slowing, the numbers are massive and the halo effect of spending on developer tools, developer productivity, infra, and security is real.
Speaking of this halo effect - here are some numbers on Github from Microsoftās earnings transcript - $1B ARR in 4 years - thatās a lot of money spent on dev tooling! That $7.5B purchase price of Github 4 years ago looks like a steal now.
All of, Azure ML revenue has increased more than 100% for four quarters in a row. Now on to developers. We have the most complete platform for developers to build cloud-native applications. Four years since our acquisition, GitHub is now at $1 billion in annual recurring revenue.
And GitHub's developer-first ethos has never been stronger. More than 90 million people now use the service to build software for any cloud on any platform up three times. GitHub advanced security is helping organizations improve their security posture by bringing features directly into the developer's workflow. Toyota North America chose the offering this quarter to help its developers build and secure many of its most critical applications.
This halo effect from cloud spend also impacts cybersecurity. Gartner recently forecasted security spending to grow 11.3% to $188.3B YoY. Those are once again large and astonishing numbers and within that, we have even faster pockets of growth. Remember my comment above on 750M new cloud native apps? Well guess what, you have to secure those - app security is expected to grow 25%, cloud security slightly faster at 27%, and data privacy and security at 17% and 14%.
Itās going to be ugly for valuations in the tech sector the next 12 months as public investor rotate into other sectors, but rest assured, the true builders will keep building and will be ready when we recover. Growth at all costs is over, balanced growth is in - cut your burn, build revenue and expense models that make sense, and keep the faith š¤²š¼!
As always, šš¼ for reading and please share with your friends and colleagues.
Scaling Startups
This is an incredible and transparent story about founding a company and the reasons for shutting it down and giving money back to investors. So many lessons about not scaling too quickly before PMF, etcā¦š© Ethan Schecter
15 months after launching & raising >$10M, Neta is shutting down and returning the money. Iām going to try to keep it short and simple as I believe 90% of business books couldāve been a blog post.
Read Neta's post mortem: https://lnkd.in/eFXpRiih
Humbled and grateful after this hell of a ride.šš¼Activation rates by types of business models
Small is beautiful
As it relates to the shitty market now and tough times versus the opportunities ahead
Enterprise Tech
Whatās happening in WASM and why its superior to containers- Fermyon announced its $20M Series A led by Insight Partners and Docker gets into the WASM game
Butcher argues WebAssembly is superior to containers in a number of respects, such as start-up time and compatibility across operating systems including Windows, Linux and Mac plus hardware platforms like Intel and Arm. Itās also more secure, he asserts, because it can safely execute even untrusted code.
To explore WebAssemblyās container-replacing potential, Fermyon developed Spin, an open source dev tool for creating WebAssembly cloud apps. Fermyon Cloud is the evolution of this work, providing a platform where customers can host those apps.
Crypto winter is clearly here but large enterprises are still building - the future is bright
𤯠Now over $3B in crypto hacks so far this year (canāt wait to share 2 crypto security investments weāve made in the last 12 months š)
Great overview on AWS and cloud marketplaces - benefits of burn down of existing AWS spend, faster time to close but still a discoverability issue as it gets larger
Going after the boring in generative AI
Markets
How public market investors are š¤
and šš¼